Successful strategies anticipate future change. To assist in this process, Local Futures has developed a range of services that provide insights into the future of cities, regions and localities. Our findings are presented in written reports and at conferences, workshops and away-days, where we work with participants to assess the implications for their own areas and organisations.
The most successful strategies are those that anticipate future change. Local Futures is committed to a long-term programme of research that identifies and monitors the key trends and 'drivers' that are likely to have an impact on the future of cities, regions and localities in Britain.
In our research we focus on twelve broad ‘drivers of change’ that we believe will be instrumental in shaping the future of places. We look at a range of trends and forecasts that we believe will have implications for regions and localities.
- Globalisation
- Industrial structure
- Science and technology
- Organisational change
- Education and skills
- Labour market
- Demographic change
- Inequality and social cohesion
- Values and attitudes
- Environment
- Leisure, tourism and the experience economy
- Government and Politics
The findings are presented in reports, where we graphically describe the trends and highlight possible impacts and implications. We also present our findings at conferences, workshops and away-days, and facilitate discussions aimed at highlighting opportunities, threats and future policy challenges. We consider the importance and uncertainty of drivers, and assess their potential impact on current conditions.
Local Futures has developed a unique process for building future scenarios. In part this work draws on our profiling and benchmarking tools, ensuring scenarios are based on a clear understanding of current conditions. However, it also makes assumptions about the impact of future 'drivers of change' and shapes scenarios that can be used to inform future strategies.
Scenarios are not intended to predict the future. Rather, they are tools for thinking about the future based on four assumptions:
- The future is unlike the past, and is shaped by human choice and action.
- The future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can inform present decisions.
- There are many possible futures; scenarios map a ‘possibility space’.
- Scenario development involves rational analysis and subjective judgement.
Our four scenarios, based on work undertaken for DTI by the Science Policy Research Unit (Sussex University), describe the United Kingdom during the period 2010-2030. The scenarios suggest possible futures, exploring alternative directions in which social, economic, environmental and technological changes may evolve over the coming decades. Scenario storylines are built from a simple and coherent set of assumptions about the main drivers of change in the future. Focusing on broad socio-economic trends at the UK national level, they provide a framework and context for creating scenarios for specific regions and localities.
The scenarios are designed to provide compelling alternative views of the future, which can be applied locally, highlighting implications and impacts. Through ‘backcasting’ and other exercises they can also be used to assess impact on current conditions and the robustness of current strategic thinking.
Over the years Local Futures has run a highly successful programme of research on the knowledge economy. Themes covered by the research have included e-government, telecommunications and regional development, e-procurement, city-regions and the role of libraries in the knowledge economy. National sponsors have included BT, IBM, the DTI, Cabinet Office and the Local Government Association.
The research programmes have provided the context within which we have developed new models and new policy ideas in collaboration with our clients, in a mutual learning environment. They are also the main generators of a growing body of evidence, case study materials and best practice policy, which can be accessed by our Local Futures Network members.
We have also carried out consultancy projects on the knowledge economy for individual clients. Themes have included city-regions, skills and learning, innovation, ICT and governance.